In recent developments, Thailand, long the unrivaled leader in durian exports, faces significant challenges as China diversifies its sources to meet soaring demand. In 2023, China’s durian imports surged by 69%, reaching 1.4 million tonnes, fueled by new market access agreements, particularly with Vietnam. This strategic shift has seen Thailand’s market share plummet from a dominant 100% in 2021 to just under 68% in 2023.

However, Thailand’s durian exports to China have not diminished. On the contrary, shipments have increased, driven by rising demand in China’s mid-sized cities. Sam Sin, Development Director at S&F Produce Group, highlights that Thailand’s export volumes have grown despite the encroachment of competitors. Vietnam, once a negligible player, now commands nearly 32% of China’s durian imports, valued at US$2.1 billion, and aims to boost this to US$3.5 billion in the coming year.

Meanwhile, the Philippines has entered the fray, securing a 0.2% share of China’s durian market shortly after gaining access in early 2023. Although logistical challenges currently hamper competitive pricing, improvements in farm infrastructure and government support could soon enhance their market position.

Compounding Thailand’s predicament, China has initiated its own domestic durian production, with expectations to significantly increase output in the next few years. Malaysia, another competitor, is pushing for fresh durian export access, having already established a presence with frozen products.

As these developments unfold, Thailand faces a critical juncture. The need for strategic maneuvers, including strengthening trade relationships and innovating within the durian industry, is paramount. The outcome of these efforts will determine whether Thailand can reclaim its throne in the durian market or cede ground to its rising competitors.